Nathan graduated with his journalism degree from Auburn University in 2017. After growing up in the flatlands of rural Alabama with his parents and older sister, Nathan enjoys Western Colorado's natural resources and recreational opportunities. He currently covers education and business for The Daily Sentinel.
Colorado Mesa University has released its annual Mesa County Economic Update, showing that the unemployment rate in the county continues to rise, though employment and labor force numbers have also risen.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Mesa County in the second quarter this year was 4.9%, up from 4.8% in the first quarter and up 0.7% from the second quarter in 2024 (4.2%). There were an estimated 3,757 unemployed people in the county in Q2, higher than the state-wide average (4.8%) and the national average (4.2%).
However, Q2 labor market data shows growth compared to Q2 in 2024, with employment increasing by 1,322 and the labor force growing by 1,559. The labor force growing more than employment is a primary factor in the increased unemployment rate.
There were 1,940 new business entity filings in Mesa County through July, so that figure is expected to surpass the 2,410 figure in 2024.
The Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado releases a quarterly Business Confidence report, showing that business confidence statewide has fallen sharply year-over-year. In Q2 in 2024, business confidence was rated at 50.6. In Q2 this year, that figure fell to 37.9.
Through May, county sales taxes increased slightly (0.51%), though Grand Junction sales taxes fell by 0.5%.
The latest data for median household income comes from 2023. CMU Economics Professor Nathan Perry, who is involved in compiling the annual economic report, said this is because county data is only made available in December, meaning 2024 data will be made available at the end of this year.
In 2023, the median household income fell to $66,339 from $69,578 in 2022. The Census Department's poverty estimate concluded that poverty in Mesa County rose from 10.7% in 2022 to 11.9% in 2023.
"Median household income is an estimate with a fairly large confidence interval, so it is important not to overreact to one number that changes," the report reads.
The Q4 2024 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage data showed that the biggest job increases in the county from 2023 to 2024 happened in healthcare (794), public administration (305), and transportation and warehousing (201).
The industries that saw the largest drops in jobs from 2023 to 2024 were manufacturing (180) and finance and insurance (128).
The largest wage contributor in the county in Q4 2024 was health care, at $240.9 million for the quarter. That made up just under a quarter of wages for the quarter out of $999.5 million. Construction ($95.9 million) was second and retail trade ($91.3 million) was third.
REAL ESTATE
Mesa County real estate inventory rose from 470 in Q2 2024 to 594 in Q2 2025. The report states that the county has not yet switched from a sellers' market to a buyers' market.
The average median sales price in Q2 was $430,983, with an average sales price of $500,470.
Rental prices continue to climb, up 4.2% compared to the second quarter in 2024.
Building permits were up in Q2 2025 year-over-year, rising by 8.37%, and single-family home permits increased by 26%.
As of August 2025, U.S. mortgage rates remain elevated, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.72%, having been elevated since late 2022.
"Those hoping for lower interest rates because of potential Federal Reserve intervention may be disappointed. Although there is a relationship between the Federal Funds Rate and the 10 year treasury (the treasury that the 30-year mortgage is based on), they can operate as separate markets and many economists are anticipating even as the federal funds rate goes lower due to potential Fed cuts, the 10 year treasury and hence mortgage rates will not fall proportionately," the report reads.
"Markets are showing close to a 90% chance of a rate cut in September, primarily due to the poor job numbers.... However, the Fed will likely remain cautious with rate cuts until the full inflationary impact of tariffs is known, which could be several months."
TARIFF IMPACTS?
The report states the following regarding potential economic impacts from President Donald Trump's tariffs:
"As of Aug. 7, reciprocal tariffs have been imposed that are intended to reshape global trade imbalances and generate tariff income. According to the Yale Budget Lab, the current average effective tariff rate is now 18.3%, which is the highest since 1934. Thus far the gloomy inflation predictions from many economists have not played out. However, it will take several months for the full inflationary impact of tariffs to be known."
DRILL, BABY, DRILL?
Drilling permits in Western Slope counties are down substantially, from 135 in 2024 to 49 year-to-date this year.. Statewide permits have fallen from 980 in 2024 to 260 year-to-date in 2025.
There have been only two drilling permits in Mesa County (down from 40 last year). Rio Blanco County drilling permits have fallen from 67 to 12, and Moffat County drilling permits have fallen from 10 to zero.
The outlier is Garfield County, which went from 18 drilling permits in 2024 to 35 so far in 2025.
OIL AND ENERGY
Natural gas prices averaged $3.19 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in Q2 of 2025. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects the Henry Hub spot price to average $3.40 per MMBtu in Q3, and $3.70 per MMBtu by the end of the year, rising to $4.40 per MMBtu in 2026.
The report states that this increase is driven by several factors, including increased storage levels this summer, slightly falling production, and increased liquefied natural gas export demand.
Oil prices (WTI) averaged $64.57 in Q2, falling from the previous quarter and previous year. The EIA forecasts Brent oil prices to average $69 per barrel through the rest of the year. The EIA forecasts an even lower oil price for 2026, expecting Brent crude oil to average $58 per barrel. This is based on rising global inventory.
U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall due to falling prices, with 13.4 million barrels per day in Q2 of 2025, expecting a decline to 13.3 million barrels per day by Q4 2026.
To view the entire economic report via PDF, visit tinyurl.com/bdf2njrp.