KUALA LUMPUR - Sabah Chief Minister Hajiji Mohd Noor has dissolved the state assembly, paving the way for the 17th state election, with his Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) ruling coalition hoping to retain power with help from Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance.
"After receiving consent from the Sabah governor, the Sabah State Assembly will be dissolved today Oct 6). The people of Sabah will be able to exercise their democratic right to decide who will lead them," Datuk Seri Hajiji announced in Kota Kinabalu on Oct 6. The state election must be held within 60 days.
The election looks to be a multi-cornered fight, as party loyalties remain fluid in the Land Below the Wind, where no single coalition is likely to claim a simple majority in the 73-seat state assembly, analysts say. Intense post-election bargaining is anticipated before the next government is formed, as had happened after the 2020 Sabah state poll.
The polls for Malaysia's second-biggest state by land size after Sarawak, involve three main factions: the GRS-PH bloc, Barisan Nasional (BN) Sabah, and opposition Parti Warisan Sabah.
A fourth faction, the Perikatan Nasional (PN) opposition coalition, led by Malay-Muslim based parties from Peninsular Malaysia, is expected to field its candidates in all 73 wards, but is unlikely to make much headway due to its religion-and-race platform.
For opinion polls analyst Tan Seng Keat, Sabah politics has deeper internal cracks based on geographical areas and personality clashes. Numerous new players have emerged, such as Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (Parti KDM), and with the so-called "black waves" or movement of independent candidates led by Kudat MP Verdon Bahanda in Northern Sabah.
"In short, Sabah politics is like a warring state, with at least seven major forces -- Warisan, BN, GRS, STAR/SAPP, PH, Parti KDM, and the black waves (Gelombang Hitam movement)," the Merdeka Center's senior research manager told The Straits Times.
The election is closely watched as it is seen as a mid-term popularity test for Datuk Seri Anwar who heads the GRS-PH alliance.
He became Malaysia's prime minister just under three years ago, in November 2022, and is currently facing cost of living issues, unfulfilled election promises and the rise of Sabah state nationalism.
The last state polls, with Mr Anwar at the helm in Malaysia, involved six states in August 2023. PH and its Umno-led BN ally retained control of Penang, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan legislatures as expected, but PN defended Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu states by winning more seats.
In Sabah, GRS has been plagued by internal divisions and external crises. Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR) and Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), both component parties of GRS, have quit the coalition over disagreements regarding giving more seat allocations to PH, as confirmed by GRS secretary-general Mr Masidi Manjun on Oct 2.
The Sabah state assembly consists of 73 elected members, with the alliance that controls the state government allowed to appoint up to six nominated members.
Of the 42 seats held by GRS in the just-dissolved legislature, STAR held six seats in Kadazandusun Murut (KDM) areas -- the major indigenous group on Sabah's west coast. SAPP has one nominated state assemblyman.
Said Merdeka Center's Mr Tan: "STAR remains one of the dominant forces. However, with the ageing of its prominent leaders, such as STAR president Jeffrey Kitingan, newcomer Parti KDM appears to be attracting segments of younger KDM voters in certain districts. Parti KDM will be the party to watch."
Parti KDM was founded in 2022 by former Sabah state minister Peter Anthony, with its political base in Tenom, an interior town located 150 km from Sabah state capital's Kota Kinabalu.
The party held two seats in the Sabah State Assembly before Anthony was disqualified and jailed following a conviction for falsifying documents.
On the external front, BN Sabah has rejected cooperation with GRS after local Umno-BN chief Bung Moktar Radin failed to oust Mr Hajiji, 69, in January 2023. Datuk Seri Bung, 66, was expelled as deputy chief minister and has since held a grudge against GRS.
In the 2020 state election, BN and GRS had formed a coalition government after defeating Parti Warisan and PH. However, Mr Bung's failed coup led to the inclusion of PH and five former Umno state assemblymen into the GRS government in January 2023.
Mr Bung and his group of rebels are now expected to field candidates, including himself, in the looming election, under the BN Sabah flag, even as others from BN Sabah may contest with the GRS-PH faction.
The current political climate does not bode well for Mr Hajiji's coalition either, as widespread anger grows over frequent power blackouts and water supply disruptions.
In mid-September, floods and landslides that claimed 13 lives caused a transmission tower to collapse, plunging most of Sabah's east coast into
darkness
. Some districts went without electricity for up to 20 hours a day during a four-day-long crisis affecting 230,000 consumers.
This also wreaked havoc on the water supply, as treatment plants powered down and hospitals were forced to postpone surgical procedures.
Mr Hajiji also has to contend with the rise of Sabah state nationalism, with the slogan "Sabah for Sabahans" promoted by some political parties and state activists to keep factions from Peninsular Malaysia such as PH and PN out of the polls.
The tragic death of
Zara Qairina Mahathir
, a 13-year-old Sabah student, in an alleged bullying case in August 2025 ignited rare widespread gatherings across the state demanding justice.
Furthermore, a series of
damning video evidence
implicating several Sabah ministers, assistant ministers, and assemblymen in an alleged mining scandal has cast a dark shadow over Mr Hajiji's leadership.
The fragmentation of Sabah politics means that no single coalition is likely to secure the "magic number" of 38 seats -- the simple majority needed in the 73-seat state assembly, said Dr Arnold Puyok, an associate senior fellow at the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute.
"That seems to be the situation for now -- no single coalition can win outright. It is highly likely that another coalition will emerge, possibly with a different set of players," the long-time Sabah political observer told ST.
The GRS is highly unlikely to form a government on its own and will need to work with other parties to establish a stable administration, he added.