Significantly, total rainfall in northern Vietnam and provinces from Thanh Hoa to Ha Tinh is projected to exceed the long-term average by 15-30%. In other regions, rainfall may be 10-20% above average, though isolated areas could experience 5-15% less rain compared to the same period in previous years.
The center also warns of dangerous weather patterns in the coming month. Specifically, between two and three tropical storms or depressions may form in the East Sea, of which one or two could make landfall in Vietnam. Historically, the average is 2.1 storms over the East Sea and 0.9 hitting land.
From late September, cold air masses are expected to begin moving in, although their intensity will remain weak and unstable. As a result, they are unlikely to cause major changes in temperature across the northern region during this period.
Widespread heavy rainfall is likely in northern Vietnam and Thanh Hoa, especially in the first half of the forecast period. Provinces from Nghe An to northern Khanh Hoa may also experience multiple rounds of heavy rain. Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some days seeing moderate to heavy rainfall.
"Nationwide, hazardous weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, whirlwinds, lightning, hail, and strong winds may continue to occur," emphasized the forecasting agency.
Additionally, storms, tropical depressions, the southwest monsoon, and cold air could cause strong winds and high waves at sea, disrupting marine activities.
Authorities and residents are urged to remain alert for the risk of flooding and landslides in low-lying and mountainous areas due to intense rainfall. Thunderstorms, whirlwinds, and lightning could also negatively impact production and public health.