On Saturday, meteorologist José Rubiera announced that Melissa has escalated to hurricane status, rapidly gaining strength over the exceptionally warm waters of the Caribbean, and exhibiting clear signs of internal organization.
Through his YouTube channel, Rubiera alerted viewers to the potential for Melissa to strike eastern Cuba as a powerful hurricane. While the vortex is "not yet fully vertical," he predicted it would achieve this alignment "in a matter of hours."
The combination of intense oceanic energy -- 30-31 °C waters with a warm layer extending up to 120 meters deep -- supports a swift intensification of the system.
Rubiera pinpointed the hurricane's center approximately 200 kilometers southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, emphasizing that heavy rainfall poses the most immediate threat to the southern regions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where there have already been significant accumulations in recent days.
Jamaica faces an exceptionally severe scenario, with forecasts of 500 to 750 millimeters of rainfall over three days (Saturday, Sunday, and Monday) in mountainous areas. This is likely to lead to floods, landslides, and intense storm surges on the southern coast, alongside prolonged hurricane-force winds due to the cyclone's slow movement near the island. Rubiera described the potential impact as catastrophic.
Regarding the hurricane's trajectory, Rubiera noted that previously divergent models have now converged, indicating a northeastward turn once a high-level trough "captures" the system.
Despite this increased consistency, he cautioned that pinpointing the exact impact location remains uncertain, with potential landfall options ranging from various entry points in eastern Cuba to a path through Haiti.
Nonetheless, Rubiera warned that the threat is growing for eastern Cuba between Tuesday and Wednesday. The region might experience very heavy rainfall starting well in advance, along with strong winds and dangerous storm surges along the southern coast, eventually affecting the north as the system crosses and accelerates toward the Atlantic.
Rubiera emphasized that the array of potential paths spans across eastern Cuba and the Haitian area, with the National Hurricane Center's official cone now appearing narrower, suggesting improved reliability in the overall forecast, albeit with many specifics regarding timing and crossing points still to be determined.
He stressed the importance of not viewing the hurricane as a single point, as its impacts extend across a wide area beyond the central forecast line.
In his operational conclusion, Rubiera urged continuous monitoring of updates.
The southern part of Hispaniola will continue to face rainfall over the weekend. Jamaica is expected to endure several days of wind, storm surges, and flooding. Once the trough accelerates the system, eastern Cuba could experience the effects of a major hurricane. However, the transit through Cuba is expected to be faster than in Jamaica, potentially reducing the duration of exposure to the main effects, though not the danger.