"I want you to know what the risks are, because I still want to come home for Thanksgiving if this doesn't work." That's what Jeff Bezos said to Jacklyn and Miguel Bezos when they invested a little over $245,000 in Amazon, his online bookstore. Bezos placed his odds of failure at 70 percent. It was likely an optimistic projection.

Which is the point. And it's an economic one, though one that economists, economics reporters and politicians continue to gloss over. While the seeds of real economic growth are being planted all over the United States as you read this, and in conversations not unlike the one Bezos had with his parents, the deep in economic thought can't get their minds off what will happen in Jackson Hole this week, and what hints Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will convey to his rapt audience about his present and future intentions with the "Fed funds rate."