The UK is set to witness a significant increase in the number of obese children and adults by 2050, with projections indicating that more than half of some age groups will be affected, according to new figures. The most detailed global analysis to date suggests that even children as young as five are expected to face higher obesity rates in the years ahead.
Experts responding to the study, which was published in the Lancet medical journal, described the worldwide situation as a "profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure". The PA news agency has analysed the data specific to the UK, revealing a worrying trend.
For girls aged five to 14, obesity rates are predicted to rise from 12.0% in 2021 to 18.4% by 2050, while for boys the increase is from 9.9% to 15.5%. In the five to nine year old bracket, the rate for girls is expected to climb from 12.6% to 19.3%, and for boys from 9.8% to 15.3%.
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Among 10 to 14 year olds, the figures suggest an increase from 11.3% to 17.5% in girls, and from 10.0% to 15.7% in boys. Looking at the 15 to 24 year old demographic, the prevalence of obesity is estimated to rise from 15.4% to 22.9% among girls, and from 12.1% to 18.3% among boys.
When considering both overweight and obesity, projections indicate that by 2050, 39.2% of girls aged five to nine in the UK will be affected, along with 31.3% of boys. For those aged 10 to 14, the percentage of girls who will be overweight or obese is expected to reach 43.2%, up from 34.7%, and for boys, it will rise to 37.6% from 29.9%.
The prevalence of overweight and obesity among 15 to 19 year olds has seen a significant increase, with the figures rising from 32.6% to 41.0% for girls, and 28.2% to 35.6% for boys. The data also indicates that by 2050, obesity rates in adults aged 25 and over will surge from 31.7% to 42.6% in women, and from 29.3% to 39.5% in men.
This equates to an estimated 23.4 million adults in this age bracket in the UK being obese. When combined with those who are overweight, around 43.4 million adults aged 25 and over are projected to be either overweight or obese.
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According to the Lancet study, more than half of adults and a third of children and adolescents worldwide will be overweight or obese by 2050. Experts have noted that rates of overweight and obesity in both adults and children have more than doubled over the past three decades (1990-2021), affecting 2.11 billion adults and 493 million young people globally in 2021.
Without "urgent policy reform and action", it is predicted that around 60% of adults (3.8 billion) and a third (31%) of all children and adolescents (746 million) will be either overweight or obese by 2050.
On a global scale, the anticipated rise in child and adolescent obesity is expected to surpass the increase in youngsters being overweight. Lead author, Professor Emmanuela Gakidou, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in the US, commented: "The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure.
"Governments and the public health community can use our country-specific estimates on the stage, timing, and speed of current and forecasted transitions in weight to identify priority populations experiencing the greatest burdens of obesity who require immediate intervention and treatment, and those that remain predominantly overweight and should be primarily targeted with prevention strategies."
They pointed out a worrying trend in which recent generations are becoming overweight at a quicker pace than their predecessors, leading to a rise in non-communicable diseases such as type 2 diabetes and heart disease at younger ages.
The research did not take into account the possible influence of new weight-loss treatments, which might affect future projections of overweight and obesity rates.
Professor Volkan Yumuk, president of the European Association for the Study of Obesity, highlighted the gravity of the situation, saying: "Because obesity is both a chronic disease in its own right and the cause of other chronic diseases and conditions, this unprecedented public health emergency will require co-ordinated policy action across Europe."