Soybeans, corn, and wheat see gains amid shifting yield and export forecasts

Soybeans were higher on short covering and technical buying, cementing week-to-week gains. The USDA's production guess is up slightly from August, but below 2024 due to acreage differences, and ending stocks were higher. While the average yield is record large, that projection could decline further once harvest gets widespread because of the dry finish to the season. The USDA's next production update is out October 9. That rise in ending stocks was largely due to the USDA cutting new crop exports because of the lack of demand from China, along with the month-to-month increase in U.S. production. China has been favoring Brazil over the U.S. because of tariff issues, and there are some signs of near-term Chinese demand slowing down with reports of record large soybean supplies in port. The USDA made no old or new crop production changes for Argentina or Brazil but did raise old and new crop export estimates for Argentina. 2024/25 and 2025/26 imports for China were unchanged. Soybean meal and oil futures were higher, following beans. South Korea bought 22,000 tons of 2025/26 U.S. soybean oil ahead of the open.

Corn was higher on short covering and technical buying, pulling contracts higher for the week. The 2025 U.S. corn production and yield estimates remain record large, and acreage numbers were above a month ago. More changes are likely over the next couple of months as harvest continues to advance, especially after disease and dry weather issues are fully accounted for. Corn ending stocks were slightly lower, still above 2.1 billion bushels, as larger beginning stocks and production more than canceled out an increased export projection. The USDA left 2025/26 production for Argentina and Brazil unchanged, with planting starting to get underway. CONAB's next round of numbers for Brazil is out October 14. On the 2024/25 side of the ledger, production was down for Brazil and South Africa, and imports by China were up slightly.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying, with the most active contracts at all three pits up on the week. U.S. wheat ending stocks dipped on export demand expectations, with no changes to production until the USDA's small grains summary on the 30. The USDA's updated winter wheat planting and spring wheat harvest numbers are out Monday afternoon. Global production and stocks were both higher than last month, with crop size rising from month-to-month for Australia, Canada, the European Union, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine. The only reported cut was for Argentina. The USDA ramped up exports for Australia, while lowering the outlooks for Russia and Ukraine.