Are you watching "Stick," a new sports comedy series released earlier this summer on Apple TV starring Owen Wilson as a former professional golfer?
Either way, you'll be able to follow along.
The idea is to provide you with some caddie-style support while you navigate through a couple of challenging holes on what I'm calling the "Interest Rate Golf Course."
On this golf course are potentially huge market-moving "holes" that will have an impact on the direction of interest rates for home loans over the next month.
Let's start by celebrating that school is officially back in session. It's time to learn.
Speaking of education, one of the more controversial holes on the Interest Rate Golf Course is designed by the government. It's trying to educate the consumer on how the monthly government employment reports are produced. Are they as accurate as they could be? Would the reports get a passing or failing grade?
Labor Day, Monday, Sept. 1, is widely considered the unofficial end of summer in the United States. So, it's only fitting that the next Bureau of Labor Statistics report (also known as the jobs report or nonfarm payrolls report) will be released on Sept. 5. And to make this hole even more intriguing, we will soon have a new Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Will it be E.J. Antoni or someone else? Definitely pay attention to this hole.
Next up on the course, you might have guessed it, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August 2025 is scheduled for release on Sept. 11. This hole is complex for sure.
According to one of my favorite economists, Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D., "July CPI was steady at 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year. Unfortunately, the all-important core measure rose from 2.9% to 3.1% year-over-year, the highest since February 2025, and was up 0.3% month-over-month, adding to the headache the Fed already has. This is because inflation has clearly stopped falling, yet is well above the Fed's desired level. Moreover, this report showed limited evidence of tariff effects, the impact of which is lagged."
Simply put, the hit from the tariffs on the supply chain through to the consumer is critical to monitor. If inflation behaves and can at least be contained, then this adds to the opportunity for the Fed to cut rates which lowers borrowing costs for consumers on such things as credit cards and home loans.
And finally, the most watched hole on this golf course -- and a highly publicized one -- will be the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting. This is where the Federal Reserve decides on interest rates and overall monetary policy, which is scheduled for Sept. 16 to 17.
In fact, this hole will likely have more spectators than usual because of the new Federal Reserve Chairman nominees circling around. Great eagle potential and definitely a birdie hole in terms of rate movement.
"Inflation, you're breaking my heart. You're shaking my confidence daily. Oh, inflation, I'm down on my knees. I'm begging you please to come home. Come on home!"
I thank Simon and Garfunkel for this one. It's catchy. Hopefully we can all "play through" on the Interest Rate Golf Course together!
Chris Salese can be reached at [email protected] or (707) 363-4439. He is a licensed California mortgage lender (LO NMLS #254469 | CA-DBO #254469 | Corp NMLS #1850 | Equal Housing Opportunity.